When it took off, where it peaked, how far it actually fell, and what the experts expect next — told with MLS data, not headlines. By Nicholas Nolan, REALTOR®.
If you're thinking about a move to Naples, you've probably read five years of whiplash headlines — bidding wars, then bubble warnings, then "buyer's market," then "inventory tightening." Underneath all of it is one orderly story. Here is the whole cycle in a single chart, drawn from Naples Area Board of REALTORS® MLS records, followed by what it means for you.
Every claim in this article comes from the monthly series below. Pick a metric, then run your finger or mouse along the line — the readout shows the exact value and the year-over-year change for any month since 2019.
From 2013 through 2019, Naples was a steady, unhurried market. The single-family resale median climbed gradually from the $260s to $414,000 in 2019. Roughly seven months of inventory sat on the market at any given time, and a typical home took about two months to sell. Remember those three numbers — $414K, 7 months, 60 days — because "back to normal" is the theme of this story.
The boom did not start the day COVID hit — spring 2020 was actually quiet. It started in the second half of 2020, when three forces collided: northern buyers untethered from offices, a wave of early retirements, and 3% mortgage rates. By December 2020 the median was up 27% year-over-year. In 2021 the median jumped to $615,000, inventory collapsed from seven months of supply to 1.1 months by May 2021, and the typical home sold in about a week.
The pace kept up into early 2022 — March 2022 closed 30% above the prior year — and then the rate of increase began cooling as mortgage rates climbed off their lows.
Here's the part most people get wrong: Naples prices didn't spike and crash. After the frenzy cooled, the median plateaued at a high level — roughly $757,000 in 2022 and $771,000 in 2023. Measured on a smoothed twelve-month basis, the true high-water mark came in May 2024, at about $787,000. Condos peaked a little earlier, with the median touching $525,000 in March 2024.
Then came the give-back — 7% mortgage rates, rising insurance costs, and a flood of listings from owners who'd been waiting out the frenzy. Inventory swelled to 10.9 months of supply by March 2025, the deepest buyer's market here since the 2010s. At the worst point, monthly medians ran about 7% below the prior year, and the 2025 full-year median settled at $732,500.
By fall 2025 the year-over-year price declines had faded to roughly flat, and 2026 has confirmed the turn. Months supply has fallen from 8.4 in February to 6.3 in May 2026 — textbook balanced territory. Closings in 2026 are running well ahead of last year, days on market is back to 57, and the May 2026 median printed $757,500, up 4.1% year-over-year. Local NABOR®-based reports show the same picture from the leading edge: pending sales sharply higher while inventory shrinks.
In plain English: the boom is over, the correction is over, and what's left looks a lot like the pre-COVID market — balanced supply, two-month selling timelines, single-digit price moves — just at a permanently higher price level.
No one has a crystal ball, but the major national forecasters are unusually aligned right now — and none of them is predicting either a boom or a bust:
Redfin calls 2026 the start of a "Great Housing Reset" — not a price correction and not a recession, but "a yearslong period of gradual increases in home sales and normalization of prices." They forecast U.S. prices up about 1% in 2026, sales up 3%, and mortgage rates settling in the low-6% range — with incomes growing faster than home prices for the first time in over a decade.
Zillow projects home values up about 1.2% in 2026 and doesn't expect mortgage rates to hold below 6%.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association land in the same neighborhood: Fannie Mae sees prices up 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 with rates averaging about 6.3% and 6.2%; the MBA pencils in roughly 0.8% price growth both years. The National Association of REALTORS® is the most optimistic of the group at about 4%, citing steady demand against limited supply. Economists surveyed at the end of 2025 summed it up as "a reset, not a rebound."
For Naples specifically, the local data adds one wrinkle the national forecasts don't capture: supply here is tightening faster than the national picture, and the demographic engine behind this market — ten thousand Americans turning 65 every day, many of them looking at Florida — hasn't gone anywhere.
If you're buying: you've arrived at the healthiest entry point in years. You have choice (six-plus months of supply), time (about two months of negotiating room on a typical listing, no bidding wars), and a price level that has already absorbed its correction. The experts' consensus — low-single-digit growth ahead — means there's little reward for waiting and little risk of having overpaid next year.
If you're selling: your equity from the boom years substantially held — but 2021 pricing tactics don't work in a balanced market. Homes here close at about 95% of asking, and sellers who overprice sit. Priced correctly and presented well, homes are moving in under two months again. (Esplanade owners: per-floor-plan resale values are on the home models page.)
If you're just nervous: that's reasonable — you lived through 2008 once already. But the structure of this market is different: this correction happened without distressed selling, owners are sitting on large equity cushions and low fixed rates, and supply never reached glut levels. The data shows a market that breathed in, breathed out, and settled — not one standing on a ledge.
Sources & methodology: All Naples historical figures are resale single-family and condo statistics for the Overall Naples Market from Naples Area Board of REALTORS® MLS via InfoSparks © ShowingTime Plus, LLC, monthly data through May 2026, retrieved June 11, 2026. Chart shows the trailing-12-month average of the monthly median sales price. Forecasts cited from Redfin, Zillow Research, Fannie Mae, MBA, and NAR as linked above — forecasts are expert opinions, not guarantees. Data deemed reliable but not guaranteed; statistics compiled by Nicholas Nolan and are not an appraisal or financial advice. Live versions of these indicators update daily on the Market Data page.
Esplanade by the Islands specialist with The Nicholas Nolan Team at Realty ONE Group MVP. Florida license SL3504588. I've tracked every sale in this community since it opened — this site is where I publish what I learn.
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